Report of the second workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin (WKNEAMP-2), 25-28 January 2016

WKNEAMP-2 met in Kirkenes, Norway 25–28 January 2016 to carry out an evaluation of harvest control rules (HCRs) for Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Bar-ents Sea capelin. The managing body (Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission, JNRFC) has made a request for evaluation of a number of alternative harvest control rules for these three stocks (ten for cod, six for haddock and four for capelin, including the rules currently in use).
For cod and haddock, the evaluation was based on long-term stochastic simulations. Supplementary information was obtained from short-term predictions. The proposed rules differed in terms of target fishing level and stability criteria. For cod, there were also a number of ‘two-step’ rules (i. e. rules where the fishing mortality is increased at high SSB levels).
For cod, all rules were found to be precautionary, and the difference in long-term yield between the rules was small, while the difference in variability in catch between the rules was considerable. The current HCR seems a reasonable compromise with regard to average catch, and with regard to long and short term stability of catches. The target fishing mortality of 0.40 in the current HCR is high compared to what has been advised for other cod stocks in recent years.
For haddock, all proposed rules were found to be precautionary, although the rule with the highest target fishing mortality (0.43) is close to the limit for being precau-tionary. Also, a rule with a very strict stability criterion (max 10% annual variation in catches compared to 25% which is presently used), performed poorly in terms of long-term yield. For the other rules, as for cod, the difference in long-term yield between the rules was small while the difference in variability in catch between the rules was considerable.
For capelin, a simplified model described in Section 5 of this report was used to illus-trate the general effects of changing the current HCR. A survey biomass (maturing capelin) result below around 1150 kt indicates that the fishery be closed. Each dou-bling of the risk from 5% to 10% and from 10% to 20% adds about 50 kt to the TAC and the minimum survey biomass that will allow a fishery is lowered by about 150 kt. The assessment model for capelin includes predation from cod, and the results apply to cod biomasses which are expected under current management and current productivity of the NEA cod stock. It is advised to keep the present HCR. The appropriateness of Blim (=200 kt) was reviewed and it was concluded that there is no evi-dence suggesting that this value should be changed.