An Ecosystem Modeling Approach to Predicting Cod Recruitment

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The NORWECOM ocean model system implemented with the ROMS ocean circulation model has been run to simulate conditions over the last 25 years for the North Atlantic. Modelled time series of volume fluxes, primary production and drift of cod larvae through their modelled ambient temperature have been analysed in conjunction with observational based VPA estimated time series of 3-year old cod recruits in the Barents Sea. Individual time series account for less than 50% of the recruitment variability, however a combination of simulated inflow of Atlantic water and primary production accounts for 70% of the variability with a 3-year lead. The prediction indicates an increased recruitment from 2007 to 2008 from about 450 to 700 million individuals with a standard error of near 150 million.