Habitat Winners and Losers: Predictive Habitat Modelling of OSPAR Priority Marine Habitats

No abstracts are to be cited without prior reference to the author.

OSPAR contracting parties and marine regions may experience the loss and gain of Priority Marine Habitats (PMHs) in the future as a result of warming seas. A Species Distribution Model, Maxent, was used to determine the potential extent and distribution of PMHs in the north east Atlantic under a 4oC increase in ocean temperature between 2009 and 2100; scenario A1B. Results showed the potential movement; and loss or gain of PMHs throughout the OSPAR regions in the projected timeframe. Belgium was projected as gaining the most PMH; while Germany may potentially lose the most. Looking towards the future, management initiatives and strategies will need to be put in place in order to manage the potential loss and gain of PMHs between sub-regions and countries.