Impacts of oceanographic change on UK kittiwake productivity

No abstracts are to be cited without prior reference to the author.

Declines in black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) populations in the UK have been linked to changing oceanographic conditions, with reduced food availability under higher temperatures leading to reduced productivity and survival. However, analyses have typically focused on relatively few intensively-studied colonies and have primarily considered sea surface temperature (SST), meaning that important drivers may have been overlooked. Here, we use data from tracking studies to produce colony-specific estimated foraging areas for eleven kittiwake colonies throughout the UK and Ireland, and examine the impacts of physical (SST, stratification strength, stratification onset) and biological (larval fish and copepod abundance) on kittiwake productivity. Higher productivity was associated with lower SSTs, and weaker, later stratification. Climate change projections indicated that rising SSTs could drive further productivity declines by the late 21st Century. Finally, higher kittiwake productivity associated with higher larval sandeel and Calanus finmarchicus abundance.