Interdisciplinary modelling though probabilistic networks: impact of fishermens commitment on the management of wild Baltic salmon stocks

No abstracts are to be cited without prior reference to the author.

Till now the restoration of potential wild Atlantic salmon populations has known relatively little success. In order to increase the probability of success, it is necessary to examine the possible factors that are currently limiting the rehabilitation of these salmon stocks and which remedial management measures can be taken. Management measures however, do not directly affect the salmon populations. Instead they are targeted at the fishermen. The impact of management measures on the fish stocks is therefore dependent on the reaction or commitment of fishermen to the management measures. The commitment of the fishermen however is quite uncertain. A probabilistic net has been constructed to look at the impact of fishermen’s commitment on the fish stocks. This net combines biological information on the wild Baltic salmon stocks with socio-economic information from the fishermen. Low commitment of fishermen will decrease the impact of management actions on the fish stock. In order to select appropriate management measures to increase the probability of successful rehabilitation of potential salmon rivers, information on the fishermen’s reaction to different management measures is needed. Larger uncertainty about the fishermen’ s commitment to different management actions will result in a lower control over the system.