Is the Canadian Arctic likely to be invaded by aquatic invasive species? A niche modelling study under various climate change scenarios

No abstracts are to be cited without prior reference to the author.

The combination of global warming, resource exploitation and the resulting increase in Arctic shipping activity are expected to increase the risk of aquatic invasive species (AIS) introductions to Arctic waters in the near future. We used MaxEnt to model the potential distribution of high risk AIS into the Canadian Arctic waters. The invasive red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) was selected to test the model performance under current environmental conditions. The predicted probability of occurrence of this species in the Canadian Arctic, particularly in Hudson Bay, resulted in a 40-60% likelihood of presence. The application of niche modelling will aid in the identification of high risk geographic locations and species to allow for more focused AIS monitoring and research efforts with current environmental conditions and also in response to climate change.