posted on 2024-04-25, 08:44authored byC. L. Needle, C. M. O'Brien, C. D. Darby
No abstracts are to be cited without prior reference to the author.
Under prevailing stock assessment methodologies, stochasticity is introduced into the simulation of future fish-stock population dynamics via random variation about a) an hypothesised spawner-recruitment model (possibly constrained to emulate the historical time-series of recruitment), and b) the initial population size. However, hindcast simulations suggest that the importance of appropriate characterisations of age-dependent measures of growth and reproductive potential may equal or exceed that of recruitment or starting numbers. This paper proposes a methodology modification by which such concerns might be addressed, through vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) modelling of maturity and weights-at-age ogives in stock projections. A number of technical points contingent on these modifications are raised. North Sea cod (Gadus morhua L.) is used as a test case for the new method, and implications for the management of this and other stocks are discussed.
History
Symposia
2001 ICES Annual Science Conference, Oslo, Norway
Session
Theme Session V on Growth and Condition in Gadoid Stocks and Implications for Sustainable Management
Abstract reference
V:19
Recommended citation
[Authors]. 2001. Ogive Characterisation In Medium-Term Stock Projections. 2001 ICES Annual Science Conference, Oslo, Norway. CM 2001/V:19. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.25636284