Petroleum activities in the Lofoten area: What is the worst case scenario?

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The complexity and uncertainty surrounding environmental problems can fuel heated debates between stakeholders with conflicting interests, priorities and agendas. Many such debates have arisen at the ‘science-policy interface’ relative to calls to open new areas for petroleum activities in the Lofoten area, in the north of Norway. The Lofoten is an especially valuable and vulnerable archipelago, known for its unique landscape and as a key spawning and nursery area for several fish stocks, hosting also the world’s largest-known deep-sea coral reef. Introducing petroleum activities brings additional competition for this valuable space, and demands an assessment of the ‘worst case scenario’ of an oil spill to support political decision-making. However such a complex model introduces numerous uncertainties, which have become contentious both within the scientific community, and in dialogue with the petroleum industry. A comprehensive worst case scenario must look at the possible effects on all ecosystems and species of the area, along every stage of their life-span, together with effects on other sectors of activity (particularly the tourism and fishery industries), and the socio-cultural characteristics of the region. This paper unpacks the debate surrounding the science and uncertainties of calculating the worst case scenario in the Lofoten, focussing on three key aspects: (i) whether historic oil spills are to be used as supporting empirical data; (ii) assessing the effects of an oil spill on the environment; and (iii) proposing measures to be taken on the basis of the worst case scenario.