Sensitivity Of The Current Ica Assessment Of Western Mackerel And Short Term Prediction To The Sampling Error In The Egg Survey Parameters

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The assessment and deterministic short term projection of the North East Atlantic mackerel stock is based on an integrated catch at age model (ICA) assessment tuned with an egg survey derived biomass estimate. The egg survey biomass estimate is based on a calculation of the total annual egg production, converted to biomass using realised female fecundity. Currently western and southern spawning components are assessed together for management purposes. Ideally the present study would be best conducted on the combined stock but was restricted to the western component where there is a longer time series of egg survey data. The paper examines variability in the parameters estimated from the survey and their influence on both the assessment and predicted Total Allowable Catch (TAC) is calculated.