Temperature Effects on Recruitment of Northern Shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in the Gulf of Maine may be Mediated through Match-Mismatch with Bloom Timing

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Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in the Gulf of Maine (GoM) occur only in the relatively cold western portion of the Gulf. Water temperature during the larval period is a significant factor determining year-class strength in this population; however, the mechanisms for the temperature effect are unclear. We evaluated the match-mismatch hypothesis as a potential explanation for the temperature effect, because the timing of the shrimp hatch is strongly dependent on temperature, while the timing of the spring bloom in coastal waters of the GoM is primarily dependent on solar insolation. The loose coupling between processes determining the timing of the shrimp hatch and the evolution of their food source suggests that shrimp recruitment may become increasingly variable under climate-induced warming of the Gulf of Maine