The TAC fallacy

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ICES has been the provider of scientific advice for decades on how to control fishing mortality to national management authorities and regional management organizations in the Northeast Atlantic. Overwhelmingly, management authorities have requested annual advice on catch levels—total allowable catches (TACs)—that will keep fishing mortality at sustainable levels. Single‐stock TACs have been used for all fisheries, from clean, single‐species fisheries for pelagic, schooling species to mixed multispecies multifleet bottom fisheries. Experience shows that it is a very difficult job to estimate the TAC corresponding to an agreed level of fishing mortality with any accuracy. The advice has been delivered in a set‐piece, where the advice is given “ex‐cathedra” without the possibility for dialogue between the ICES advisory bodies and managers on the factual advice for a given year. Problems in implementation and control and enforcement have been common and social and economic consequences have not been taken into account in the advisory process. The focus on TACs has led to a lack of research in other ways to regulate the level of exploitation and patterns, for example with control of effort (TAEs), area closures, and changes in gear technology. This paper discusses the inherent problem in controlling fishing mortality with annual TACs, possible new ways for delivery of advice, a more flexible use of various management tools, and how to make sure that the ecological advice is accompanied by information on social and economic consequences in the short and medium term.