The long-term dynamics of Global and Arctic Temperatures. Are they predictable?

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The Arctic region determines climate over the whole Northern Hemisphere and North Atlantic Seas in particular. Understanding the Arctic climate dynamics in the near future is vitally important for several ambitious projects, such as year-round navigation from Europe to Asia through the North-east Passage or oil and gas production over the Arctic shelf. “Climatic boundaries” of the Arctic are limited by the July 10˚C isotherm. The outlined area exceeds the traditional geographical boundaries of the Arctic and extends from the western Arctic Seas to the Bering Sea of the East