Cod (<i>Gadus morhua</i>) in Subarea 4, divisions 6.a and 7.d, and Subdivision 20 (North Sea, West of Scotland, eastern English Channel and Skagerrak)

<p dir="ltr">Northern shelf cod consists of three substocks (Northwestern, Southern, and Viking) which mix and are caught together. ICES advises that when the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach and precautionary considerations are applied, there should be zero catch in 2026 for all substocks.</p><p><br></p><p dir="ltr">ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied to the Northwestern and Viking substocks without precautionary considerations, and the MSY approach with precautionary considerations is applied to the Southern substock catches in 2026 should be no more than 8670 tonnes, 3610 tonnes and 0 tonnes respectively. As the three substocks are caught together, this will result in a higher probability (67%) for the Southern substock of remaining below B_lim. The available evidence suggests this risk to the Southern substock may be reduced by fishing in quarter one (January-March), when the three stocks are thought to mainly separate to the areas shown in Figure 2. ICES is not able to quantify the degree of mixing between substocks in quarters 2-4 and any level of catch of Southern substock will increase the probability of being below B_lim in 2027, predicted to be 44% even with zero catch. However, the indirect effects of more intensive fishing in Q1 have not been quantified and may lead to undesirable outcomes, such as alterations in the selection pattern.</p>