Dealing with uncertainty in water quality models of the North Sea

During the last 20 years, several chemical water quality models of the North Sea have been constructed. In general, the available processes, knowledge, data, and parameters have been integrated to describe the distribution, cycling, and fate of metals and organic compounds. Thus, it is possible, from a scientific point of view, to evaluate and identify gaps in knowledge. In some countries, these models have also been used to verify whether emission reduction measures were sufficient to attain water quality objectives. Intercomparisons have demonstrated that various models still show considerable differences in the simulated concentrations of substances. There is still a need for appropriate validation data. The question arises whether further development of North Sea water quality models could benefit from a more systematic approach to uncertainty analysis and from establishing unambiguous quality criteria for evaluating model results. International cooperation is important, to improve both field knowledge as well as models. Better "tuning" of the data necessary for monitoring purposes and model parameterization, initialization, and validation still needs attention. ICES could intensify its coordinating role, using its organizational network and data holdings.

Article from Marine Science Symposia Vol. 215 - 100 years of science under ICES. To access the remaining articles please click on the keyword "MSS Volume 215".