EU request on evaluation of a draft multiannual plan for the Baltic salmon stock and the fisheries exploiting the stock

The European Commission’s request to ICES:

1) ICES is requested to provide information on river size and potential productivity of wild stocks in the rivers included in Annex I to the draft multiannual plan.
2) Article 4 of the draft plan provides that the wild salmon smolt production of each stock listed in Annex I should eventually reach at least 75% of its potential smolt production capacity (i.e. the current MSY-proxy). Depending on the status of a given wild salmon stock at the time of entry into force of the plan, the plan should provide, taking into account the life cycle of salmon, adequate time limits to achieve certain targets: a first target is to reach 50% of the potential smolt production capacity, the second target to reach 75% thereof. The related time limits are marked in the draft plan as ‘XX’ in Article 4 (2)–(4).
ICES is encouraged to propose alternative options for stock productivity proxies and/or reference points, if more appropriate proxies or values can be determined and estimated.
3) Furthermore, the plan should provide in its Article 5 (2) a fishing mortality range (marked ‘between …to…’) applicable to the ICES subdivisions 22–31 which is closely linked to the time limits to be defined in Article 4.
ICES is requested to provide an analytical evaluation of the recovery rate of individual wild salmon stocks under alternative fishing scenarios, including an estimation of the number of salmon generations and years required to reach the targets under different F-values for commercial fisheries. The evaluation of the time limits should be based on the stock projections and include fishing scenarios with the exploration rates ranging from F=0 to a level that corresponds to a fishing mortality that will give “MSYsalmon” (Fmsy or Fmsy Upper). In addition, ICES is requested to provide stock projections and stock developments with F-value range in close vicinity of F=0.1, including the relevant time limits.
Defining the MSY approach for salmon in the Baltic (“MSYsalmon”) is complicated due to a number of reasons (many wild river stocks of variable status, high proportion of reared salmon exploited in mixed stocks fisheries etc.). Both time to reach the target (per stock) and the proportion of river stocks having reached the target at a certain time, needs to considered when defining Fmsy or Fmsy Upper for salmon in subdivisions 22–31. ICES is requested to propose candidate definitions for “MSYsalmon” that are in accordance with the ICES MSY approach.
4) To provide information on the likely impact that alternative time limits, with associated F-values, would have on the stock projections to achieve MSY-targets and the future ICES advice on the fishing possibilities.

Additional request: During the process of addressing the requests, ICES was also requested by members of BALTFISH to provide any other relevant comments on the draft multiannual plan.