EU request to ICES on forecast scenarios of the likely consequences of reductions in fishing mortality in the western Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) stock

ICES has provided below stochastic medium-term projection results for the western Baltic cod stock for the years 2017 to 2027, based on different scenarios of reduction in fishing mortality in the commercial and recreational fisheries. The results indicate an increase in the spawning-stock biomass (SSB) under all scenarios, but the speed and degree of stock recovery is greater for the scenarios that correspond to a stronger reduction in fishing mortality.

Even under conditions of no fishing it will take several years to reduce the probability of SSB being below Blim to no more than 5%. Scenarios where reductions occur exclusively in the recreational fishery would decrease the probability of the SSB being below Blim in 2027, but this would remain high (to the order of 25% to 50%).

In the simulated scenarios, with annual reductions in the commercial or in both fisheries until the fishing mortality consistent with ICES MSY approach is reached (the d1 and d3 scenarios), the median SSB increases and is higher than MSY Btrigger by 2027.