EU request to ICES on the effect of increased quota flexibility in 2015–2016 on Baltic herring and sprat

The proposed flexibility for Baltic pelagic stocks would, if utilized, result in reduced F in 2015 and the transfer of fishing possibilities to 2016 will result in an increase in F in 2016 of a similar magnitude to the flexibility (approximately +20% or +30%) if these are fully utilized. Thus it is expected that F in 2015 will have a greater than 50% probability of being below FMSY and F in 2016 will have a greater than 50% probability of being above FMSY. It is expected that the mean F over the two years will be similar to the F that would result from 100% of each annual TAC being taken in its respective year and it is likely to have a slightly positive, but effectively negligible impact on precautionary biomass considerations defined by the probability of SSB< Blim during the two years.