EU standing request on catch scenarios for zero-TAC stocks 2023 :cod (Gadus morhua) in Division 7.a (Irish Sea). Replacing technical service provided in November 2023

Please note: the present technical service replaces the one released in November 2023.

Cod (Gadus morhua) in Division 7.a is caught as bycatch, with no targeted fisheries for this stock permitted in this division. The current ICES advice is that when the MSY approach is applied with precautionary considerations, there should be zero catch in the year 2024. The mixed-fisheries analysis shows that cod is primarily caught as a bycatch stock by demersal otter trawl fleets targeting haddock and Norway lobster, and to a lesser degree by other midwater and beam trawl fleets. The EU multiannual plan (MAP) for stocks in Western Waters and adjacent waters (EU, 2019) takes into account bycatch of this species. There is no agreed shared management plan between the EU and UK for this stock.

This technical service provides one catch scenario based on the expected bycatch of status quo fishing effort by all fleets.

For cod in Division 7.a:

• 194 tonnes are estimated to be caught as bycatch if fishing effort continues at status quo levels (average 2020–2022); this would result in a cod spawning-stock biomass (SSB) of 10 424 tonnes in 2025.

The status quo fishing effort results in a reduction in SSB in 2025 relative to 2024 of −11.8% and an SSB below B_trigger (13 012 tonnes) and above B_lim (9364 tonnes) in 2025. ICES notes, however, that the SSB forecasts for this stock are highly uncertain and mainly dependent on the estimation of a single recent cohort (ICES, 2023a). It is, therefore, not possible to accurately estimate the probability of biomass being above B_lim at the end of the projection year.

Since cod is caught as bycatch in mixed fisheries, a specific monitoring TAC is not required for this stock.