Joint NAFO\ICES Pandalus Assessment Working Group (NIPAG)

The NAFO/ICES Pandalus Assessment Group (NIPAG), met to assess the Pandalus stock in divi-sions 3.a and 4.a east. The objective was to assess stock status and to draft advice according to the ICES MSY approach and the current EU and Norway Long-term Management Strategy (LTMS). The LTMS requires ICES to provide both an update in-year TAC advice for 2022 and an initial TAC advice for the first two quarters of 2023.

A length-based Stock Synthesis (SS3) statistical framework was used to assess the status of the stock based on updated input data (commercial catches for 2021 and survey catches from Janu-ary 2022). The assessment model and reference points were updated during the 2022 benchmark (WKPRAWN 2022) and now contains hermaphroditic parameters, two areas, and six fleets. The model is also now fit using a novel ensemble approach whereby three different natural mortality rates are considered. The assessment demonstrated that the fishing pressure on the stock is be-low FMSY and that spawning–stock size is below MSY Btrigger and Bpa but above Blim. 

In accordance with the ICES MSY approach and new reference points NIPAG advises that catch-es in 2022 should be no more than 7712 tonnes, and that catches for the first two quarters of 2023 should be no more than 5882 tonnes. This corresponds to a 29% reduction of the initial catch advice for 2022 (10 890 tonnes). This change is partly explained by the realized catches in 2021 being higher than the advised catches (7484 tonnes realized, compared to 7166 tonnes advised). The preliminary advised catch for 2023 is 51% larger than the advised catch for 2022 mainly because the 2021- and 2022-year classes are estimated to be higher than the 2020-year class.

SS3 model diagnostics of the assessment did not indicate any issues with model fit. There is a positive retrospective bias in SSB and negative retrospective bias in F and recruitment, but these are all within the acceptable range (Mohn’s Rho threshold values) of requiring no action.