Norway/Russia request for evaluation of harvest control rules for Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and for Barents Sea capelin

ICES advises that the harvest control rules (HCRs) considered in this request for cod and haddock are all precautionary in

accordance with the ICES standard that the annual probability of SSB falling below Blim should be no more than 5%.

For cod, scenarios with a higher F (HCRs 3 to 10) than used presently (HCR 2) result in 1%–4% higher long-term median yield,

but there is up to a threefold increase in interannual TAC variability. The median long-term SSB expected with the higher F

HCRs is 4%–16% lower than under the HCR used presently. The HCR with the lowest F (HCR 1) leads to a 7% decrease in

median long-term catch relative to HCR 2, lower interannual variability in TAC, and higher SSB.

For haddock, scenarios with a higher F (HCRs 3, 5, and 6) than under the one used presently (HCR 2) result in 0%–4% higher

long-term median yield, with an increase in interannual TAC variability between 13% and 36%. The median long-term SSB

expected with the higher F HCRs is around 20% lower than under the HCR used presently. HCRs 1 (lower target F) and 4 (10%

limit on interannual TAC variation) lead to lower long-term catch, lower interannual TAC variability, and higher median longterm

SSB than HCR 2.

For cod, yield is expected to decline relative to the 2015 TAC and SSB is expected to stabilize in the short term (next three

years), whereas for haddock both yield and SSB are expected to decline in the short term for all the HCRs in the request.

For capelin, the HCRs based on the 90%, 85%, and 80% criteria are not precautionary in the ICES evaluation context by

definition; only the rule implemented in the current management plan, corresponding to the 95% criterion, may be

precautionary. An examination of the stock dynamics in recent decades, when the current HCR (based on 95% criterion) or

the previous HCR (based on a similar escapement strategy) were in operation suggests that these HCRs resulted in

sustainable exploitation. The overall effect of allowing a higher probability of SSB < Blim would be that the fishery would be

opened at a lower survey biomass (maturing capelin), the TAC would increase and the resulting spawning biomass would be

lower, potentially increasing the risk of recruitment failure. The 2015 survey estimate for capelin was low and would have led

to closure of the fishery in 2016 under all suggested HCRs.