Norway request on management strategy evaluation for the Pandalus fishery in Subdivision 3.a.20 (Skagerrak) and Division 4.a East (Norwegian Deep)

ICES advises that the proposed Harvest Control Rule (HCR) is precautionary provided that the target fishing mortality is set at F = 0.52 or a lower value, and linearly reduced to zero at SSB levels below an MSY Btrigger of 9900 tonnes. The evaluation found that including a 10% interannual quota flexibility (’banking and borrowing’) in the HCR had an insignificant effect on the performance of the rule.

ICES notes that recruitment from 2008 to 2014 has been low. ICES advises that if this lower recruitment was to continue in the long-term, then a lower target fishing mortality of 0.32 would be required for the HCR to be precautionary. This lower target fishing mortality would be precautionary for any level of recruitment observed in the past.

ICES advises that because of uncertainty as to whether the stock is entering a phase of lower recruitment, a proposed HCR with target F = 0.52 should be re-evaluated within two to three years.

ICES could not formally evaluate the effect of in-year revisions on the assessment.

ICES was not able to investigate the effect of different discarding levels on the sensitivity of the results.