International Council for the Exploration of the Sea
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Ogive characterisation in medium-term stock projections

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posted on 2023-01-27, 09:02 authored by C. L. Needle, C. M. O’Brien, C. D. Darby

Under prevailing stock assessment methodologies, stochasticity is introduced into the simulation of future fish-stock population dynamics via random variation about a) an hypothesised spawner-recruitment model (possibly constrained to emulate the historical time-series of recruitment), and b) the initial population size.  However, hindcast simulations suggest that the importance of appropriate characterisations of age-dependent measures of growth and reproductive potential may equal or exceed that of recruitment or starting numbers.  This paper proposes a methodology modification by which such concerns might be addressed, through vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) modelling of maturity and weights-at-age ogives in stock projections.  A number of technical points contingent on these modifications are raised.  North Sea cod (Gadus morhua L.) is used as a test case for the new method, and implications for the management of this and other stocks are discussed. 



ICES Annual Science Conference 2001; Oslo, Norway


Theme Session on Growth and Condition in Gadoid Stocks and Implications for Sustainable Management (V)

Abstract reference

V: 19

Recommended citation

Needle, C. L., O'Brien, C. M., and Darby, C. D. 2001. Ogive characterisation in medium-term stock projections. Annual Science Conference 2001, Oslo, Norway. CM 2001/V: 19. 19 pp.

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    ASC 2001 - V - Theme session