Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG)

Since 30 March 2022, all Russian Federation participation in ICES has been suspended. Although the announcement of the suspension stressed the role of ICES as a “multilateral science organization” this suspension applied not only to research activities but also to the ICES work of providing fisheries advice for the sustainable management of fish stocks and ecosystems. As a result of the suspension, it is not possible to run ICES stock assessments or provide ICES advice for the Barents Sea stocks of NEA cod, NEA haddock, capelin, beaked redfish (Sebastes mentella), or Greenland Halibut, as management and data collection for these stocks are shared between Norway and Russia. There are therefore no AFWG stock assessments for these stocks this year.

Assessment and advice for these stocks are being conducted outside ICES through the bilateral Russian-Norwegian group, the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG). The most recent assessment reports are available via the Institute of Marine Research (IMR) website:

• The report of the JRN-AFWG 2023 is available here: https://www.hi.no/en/hi/nettrapporter/imr-pinro-en-2023-7

The JRN-AFWG 2023 capelin report is available here: https://www.hi.no/en/hi/nettrapporter/imr-pinro-en-2023-9

The assessments in 2022 and 2023 occurred outside ICES but were based on the stock annexes previously agreed within ICES, used the same data and models as previously, and were conducted by the same Russian and Norwegian scientists that were involved in the previous ICES assessments. The managing body in the Barents Sea (the Joint Norwegian Russian Fisheries Commission; JNRFC) has endorsed this approach and has used the advice from the JRN-AFWG as the basis of management following the same procedures previously used for ICES advice. There is therefore currently no possibility to produce, and no current management need for, ICES assessments for these stocks.

This year AFWG is providing ICES advice for saithe, coastal cod north and coastal cod south and golden redfish (S. norvegicus). In addition, an assessment has been run for anglerfish, although there is no formal request for advice for this stock. Assessments for Greenland halibut, NEA cod, NEA haddock, beaked redfish (S. mentella), and capelin were run at the JRN-AFWG in since 2022, and there are links to the advice from 2023 below.

Stock-by-stock summaries (ICES)

The stock trends for the assessed stocks are as follows:

Cod (Gadus morhua) in subareas 1 and 2 north of 67°N (Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea), northern Norwegian coastal cod; cod.27.1-2.coastN

The coastal cod north assessment is an update of the existing methodology and gives an SSB estimate of 61 030 tonnes for 2024 (down from 70 033 tonnes in 2023), and the catch advice is 26 627 (almost unchanged from the previous 26 612 tonnes. Further analysis of the HCR has extended the valid range of the HCR down to a lower bound of XXX. There is no Blim for this stock and the status relative to this reference point can therefore not be determined, but SSB is above the biomass limit for which the HCR is valid (SSBlowerbound). The fishing mortality is 0.42, well above target F in the management plan

Cod (Gadus morhua) in Subarea 2 between 62°N and 67°N (Norwegian Sea), southern Norwegian coastalcod; cod.27.2.coastS

This stock was previously assessed as data poor, however following a benchmark a SPiCT model has been approved for use. Although this model has high uncertainty, it is possible to give a status determination for the first time for this stock. The stock is assessed as in poor state, and an advice of 1 926 tonnes has been given, down from 9 136 tonnes. The difference is due to the incompatibility between advice arising from ICES data rich and data poor processes. Catch data for this stock is rather uncertain, with poorly estimated recreational catches being an important part of the overall catch, but estimated catch of 7 543 tonnes in 2023 is below the previous advice but above the new advice.

Saithe in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic)

The saithe stock was benchmarked in 2024. Revisions to maturity and a change to use survey weights for stock weights has revised the SSB and total biomass, however the stock numbers, F history and catch advice are only slightly changed by the benchmark. The recent growth in the SSB is expected to level of and slightly decline, but the stock remains in good status, and well above Bpa and Bmsy. Catch advice for 2025 is 193 117 tonnes, down from 223 123 tonnes for 2024, with the decline due to the projected downturn in the stock combined with a three-year lookahead rule in the HCR.

Anglerfish (Lophius budegassa, Lophius piscatorius) in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic)

Data-limited model results based on length data from the fishery suggest that the biomass seems to be doing well and that the exploitation pattern is appropriate, while the rate might be near/slightly above the level that would lead to maximum yield. Management is based on technical measures rather than a quota. AFWG does not currently give advice on this stock but considers the current assessment of sufficient quality to base catch advice on if requested by the managers.

Stock-by-stock summaries (non-ICES)

Information for the stocks not currently assessed by AFWG (latest 2023 Greenland halibut, NEA cod, NEA haddock, and capelin; latest 2022 beaked redfish) via the IMR website:

Barents Sea capelin

• The JRN-AFWG advice from 2023 is available here: https://www.hi.no/en/hi/nettrapporter/imr-pinro-en-2023-8

NEA cod

• The JRN-AFWG advice from 2023 is available here: https://www.hi.no/en/hi/nettrapporter/imr-pinro-en-2023-5

NEA haddock

• The JRN-AFWG advice from 2023 is available here: https://www.hi.no/en/hi/nettrapporter/imr-pinro-en-2023-4

Greenland halibut

• The JRN-AFWG advice from 2023 is available here: https://www.hi.no/en/hi/nettrapporter/imr-pinro-en-2023-6

Beaked redfish (Sebastes mentella)

• The JRN-AFWG advice from 2022 is available here: https://www.hi.no/en/hi/nettrapporter/imr-pinro-en-2022-5