Report of the Workshop to evaluate the EU–Russian proposal for the harvest control component of the management plan for Rockall haddock (WKROCKHAD)
The evaluation of the harvest control plan for Rockall haddock proposed by EU and Russia was carried out using model simulations. Two models were used for the evaluations, the first using FLR libraries in R, the second in an Excel spreadsheet with slightly different starting assumptions.
Based on the results of HCR evaluations carried out using both models it can be con-cluded that the proposed harvest control rules are considered to be in accordance with the precautionary approach, since the risk for SSB to be below Blim when the HCR is applied for 30 years is less than 5%.
This conclusion should be considered in association with two main caveats. Taking into account the very low recruitment observed in recent years, it is expected that SSB will follow below Blim in the near future irrespective of management actions. Furthermore, if the current situation with low recruitment continues into the future, the results of the HCR evaluations show that the stock will be below Blim with a probability considerably higher than 5%, even in the absence of fishing.
Published under the auspices of the following ICES Steering Group or Committee