The Netherlands request for evaluation of the proposal for a multi-annual plan for horse mackerel in the North Sea

ICES has evaluated the proposed harvest control rule for a multi-annual plan for horse mackerel in the North Sea using various  plausible  parameter  options.  Given  that  the  stock  is  at  its  lowest  since  the  early  1990s,  some  of  the  Harvest  Control Rule parameter options suggest recovery of the stock to above the present level by 2020, but none of them with 95%  probability.  Therefore,  ICES  considers  none  of  these  options  as  being  in  accordance  with  the  precautionary  approach.  It  is suggested  that  managers  discuss  other  options  with  ICES  that  might  be  more  suitable,  including a recovery phase  to  reverse  the  decline  of  the  stock.  ICES  intends  to  provide  2015  catch  options  for  this  stock  in  the  annual advice in October 2014.