Working Group on North Atlantic Salmon (WGNAS)

<p dir="ltr">WGNAS met to consider the status of, and threats to, Atlantic salmon in the North Atlantic Salmon Conservation Organization (NASCO) commission areas: West Greenland (WGC), North American (NAC), and Northeast Atlantic (NEAC). Information on the catch and exploitation, including salmon caught and released, and nominal harvest, as well as tagged and marked fish releases are provided by country and jurisdiction. Emerging threats are presented, including updates to Norway’s evaluating new offshore farming sites, and potential risks to pre-spawning adult salmon from a rubber-tyre derived antioxidant as evidenced for some Pacific salmon stocks. New scientific advancements reported on include ongoing work to create a more spatially resolved genetic baseline for European salmon, a new method for estimating salmon returns to rivers, and updates on tracking studies of salmon tagged in marine waters of Canada and Greenland.</p><p dir="ltr">WGNAS evaluated the status of stock complexes and stock-units using the Run-Reconstruction Model, and for the first time, used the recently benchmarked Life-cycle Model to investigate catch options for distant water fisheries.</p><p dir="ltr">In 2023, the two returning age classes of the Northern NEAC stock complex were considered to be at full reproductive capacity, but lower than the previous five-year mean and the second lowest in the time-series. The 2023 estimate of 1SW spawners was determined to be at risk of suffering reduced reproductive capacity and amongst the lowest in the time-series. No clear trends were evident for MSW spawners.</p><p dir="ltr">The southern NEAC 1SW returns stock component was suffering reduced reproductive capacity, with the estimate being the lowest in the time-series. The MSW returns stock component was at risk of suffering reduced reproductive capacity, and was the second lowest in the time-series. The 1SW spawners stock component was estimated to be suffering reduced reproductive capacity and the lowest in the time-series. No clear trends were evident for MSW spawners but this component was considered to be at risk of suffering reproductive capacity.</p><p dir="ltr">Catch advice for the Faroes fishery was developed for the 2024/2025 to 2026/2027 fishing seasons. In the Northern NEAC stock complex, the MSW component has a high probability (≥95%) of achieving its CL for TACs at Faroes for a catch option of ≤40 t in the 2024/2025 season and for a catch option of ≤20 t in the 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 season. All other management units, at the stock complex level, each have less than 95% probability of achieving their CLs with any TAC option in any of the forecast seasons. Therefore, there are no catch options that ensure a greater than 95% probability of each stock complex achieving its CL.</p><p dir="ltr">The probabilities of the 1SW national management units achieving their CLs in 2024/2025 vary from 3% (France) to 99% (Norway) for the different countries, assuming zero catch at Faroes. These probabilities decline very little with increasing TAC options, reflecting the expected low harvest rate on maturing 1SW stocks at Faroes. The probabilities are also generally lower for the two subsequent seasons. The probabilities of the MSW national management units achieving their CLs in 2024/2025 vary between 6% (Ireland) and 99% (Norway) assuming zero catch allocated for the Faroes fishery, and decline with increasing TAC options. The only countries to have a greater than 95% probability of achieving their CLs with catch options for Faroes are Norway (TACs ≤20 t) and Russia (TACs ≤160 t). In most countries, these probabilities are lower in the subsequent two seasons. There are, therefore, no TAC options at which all management units would have a greater than 95% probability of achieving their CLs.</p><p><br></p><p dir="ltr">In 2023, the median estimates of 2SW salmon returns and spawners to rivers were above the respective 2SW CLs (i.e. at full reproductive capacity) in two stock-units of NAC (Labrador and Quebec). All other regions were at risk of suffering or were suffering reduced reproductive capacity. Estimates of PFA indicate continued low abundance of North American adult Atlantic salmon. The continued low and declining abundance of salmon stocks across North America, despite significant fishery reductions, strengthens the conclusions that factors acting on survival in the first and second years at sea, at both local and broad ocean scales, are constraining abundance of Atlantic salmon. Declines in smolt production in some rivers of eastern North America are now being observed and are also contributing to lower adult abundance.</p><p dir="ltr">Assessment of risks from exploitation in the mixed-stock fisheries for NAC for 2024-2027 are based on the application of the LCM. Catch options are only considered for the non‐maturing 1SW and maturing 2SW components, as the maturing 1SW component is not fished outside homewaters, and in the absence of significant marine interceptory fisheries this component is managed in homewaters. As the predicted number of 2SW salmon returning to North America in 2024 to 2027, even with no fishing mortality in the North Atlantic, is substantially lower than the 2SW CL/MO, there are no catch options for the composite stock in the North American fisheries. Where river-specific spawning requirements are being achieved, there are no biological reasons to restrict the catch.</p><p dir="ltr">Catch options for the West Greenland fishery for 2024 to 2026 are based on application of the LCM in a risk analysis framework that considers CLs or alternate MOs of the NAC and NEAC areas, and the risks are developed in parallel and combined into a single catch options table. None of the stated management objectives would allow a mixed-stock fishery at West Greenland to take place in 2024, 2025, or 2026.</p><p dir="ltr">WGNAS updated information on the abundance and distribution of pink salmon (<i>O. gorbuscha</i>) in the North Atlantic.</p>