Workshop for the evaluation of the Iberian sardine HCR (WKSARHCR)

The Workshop for the evaluation of the Iberian sardine HCR (WKSARHCR) met to evaluate a new harvest control rule proposed by Portugal and Spain for the management of the Iberian sardine stock. Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and Precautionary Approach (PA) reference points were re-examined. FMSY was recomputed using the management strategy evaluation (MSE) framework to be 0.092 year-1. The proposed harvest control rule has three levels of fishing mortality and three levels of spawning–stock biomass. The request asked for the evaluation of the generic HCR with catches capped at 40–50 kt, but WKSARHCR also explored the generic HCR capped at 30 and 35 kt. The operating model of the MSE was based on the most recent stock assessment of the Iberian sardine. Future recruitment was generated according to a persistent low productivity for the basecase, based on the time-series 2006–2019. Two other recruitment scenarios were also considered: a transition from the low to a more productive regime, as ob-served in the time-series 1993–2019, and a wider dynamic recruitment, encompassing both productivity regimes. All HCRs are precautionary in the short and long term under a persistent low productivity and are robust to a potential future shift to a higher productivity state of the Iberian sardine. Among the precautionary harvest rates evaluated, the expected catches and in-terannual variability in catches are similar. Under a persistent low recruitment, the harvest con-trol rule with a cap of 35 kt results in the highest annual catches in the long term, of 34 226 tonnes (fishing mortality in the range 0.094–0.11 year-1), which is slightly higher than the ICES MSY advice rule expected catch, of 31 283 tonnes (fishing mortality in the range 0.101–0.115 year-1).