Report of the Study Group on Recruitment Forecasting (SGRF)

The Study Group on Recruitment Forecasting (SGRF) met at the Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM-CSIC) in Barcelona, Spain from October 15–19, 2012, with eleven participants and Dr Sam Subbey (Norway) as Chair.

The formal mandate for this SG meeting was established in 2011/2/ACOM26 under Action Plan No: 1.2, 1.10, and 2.5. The objectives of the SG are to decide on guidelines and standards with regards to (1) How to develop models for recruitment projections which incorporate both abundance indices and environmental drivers, and (2) Criteria for validating models and for choosing the ‘best’ or a set of the best models.

The 2012 meeting focused on:

a ) A framework for:

i ) Ecological and biological considerations in developing models for short-term recruitment projections, including how to incorporate both abundance indices and environmental drivers;

ii ) The detection of ecological drivers for spikes in fish recruitment;

iii ) A methodological approach to deriving a representative recruitment forecast when confronted with an ensemble of several competing model forecasts of recruitment;

b ) Testing the framework using a designated case study.